And then there were 3… EMI split, where does it lead?
Universal Music Group and Sony Music continue to dominate the music biz storylines this year with the unpredictable conclusion of the EMI auction, which saw the two industry leaders beating out the long-expected winning bidders in Warner Music and BMG Rights Management. It might be too soon to call it the era of the ‘big three,’ with the regulatory process expected to last well into 2012 after Citigroup’s auction split EMI into two – the recorded music going to UMG while EMI Music Publishing is set to fall under the ownership of an investment consortium including Sony Music, the estate of Michael Jackson, music mogul David Geffen and others – but however you slice it, the trend of contraction continues. And for all the growth and ‘turning point’ talk, including from the CEO of UMG parent company Vivendi, in the wake of an increase in music sales over last year, the revenue from those sales is still in decline due to the lowering of prices, as pointed out in a Bloomberg article this week… So where do things go from here?
Independent music company coalition IMPALA began saber rattling prior to the announcement of the EMI auction winners, and were quick to make public their intentions to block the acquisitions by both groups following the announcements on Friday. Industry insiders however are questioning the association’s ability to ultimately triumph in stopping the completion of either deal. Universal Music is expected to dispose of a certain amount of assets, particularly in European territories where they would now hold a market share well over 50%, and their key argument for approval will be that the music industry is in a much different place even from just a few years ago, and that they like others are at the mercy of technology companies like Apple in this new digital age. How well that justification will fare remains to be seen, as there are seemingly plenty of holes. One could easily look to how long it took Spotify to launch in the U.S. due to the process of acquiring licenses from the four major label groups, and further, that they negotiated equity stakes in the service in order to allow a launch in America… It will also be interesting to see how well Google does with the launch of a new music store, expected to be this week, with only two major labels onboard, Universal and EMI (coincidence?)… And while iTunes Match is expected to succeed, it’s clear that Apple feels comfortable with their current position and power in the music space, as they continue to expand their sites in new areas of media and content domination… And as far as the EMI publishing spoils go, many see the creation of the investment entity, of which Sony only holds a minority stake, as making the approval process easier.
Some of the other big questions being asked by observers this week include, what is the fate of EMI Group CEO Roger Faxon? A role within Universal Music on the recording side seems unlikely, and while EMI’s pubco is expected to remain its own entity with Sony/ATV in a management and administration role, will there be room for Faxon to reunite with his former EMI publishing co-CEO Marty Bandier, and more importantly would he take a reduced-role? How does this play for current Sony Pub players Jody Gerson and Danny Strick? Will Warner Music be first in line to snatch up EMI recorded assets in European territories from Universal, particularly in light of their recognized weakness abroad and the shake-up among its international management structure announced by Lyor Cohen just last week? Will Edgar Bronfman Jr. now exit WMG completely as expected? Contrary to public comments from BMG Rights Management CEO Hartwig Masuch today that the EMI publishing purchase was not “necessary” for the company, those in the know believe that it was indeed a crucial acquisition for the KKR and Bertelsmann backed venture, and having failed to secure it, are wondering if KKR will now get out? Insiders share that the Germans are considering buying out KKR’s stake. And having purchased most of the mid-level music publishing business over the last couple years, including Bug Music during the EMI auction, will BMG now shift focus to unifying its management structure and operation?
Plenty more action to come…
01.26.11Wednesday Bits & Pieces: Is it Already the End of Digital Music or Just a New Beginning? More UMG-Sony Music Red Rover & more…
Which way is the river flowing?
Over the weekend The New York Times published what has become an annual gloom and doom report regarding the state of music sales, using the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry’s report as the guidepost. In addition to the continued slump in physical, the recap for 2010 concentrated on the plateauing of digital sales and “not a lot of progress” in digital after a decade. However as Evolver.fm points out, the piece focused heavily on the slowing at marketplaces like iTunes and Amazon, while paying less attention to revenue generated from newer services like Pandora, Spotify, YouTube, etc – which is not the same as digital sales. The IFPI’s report contains various points of optimism, like in the growth of mobile access to subscription services due to new technology and compatibility improvements, as well as the significant expansion in the customers of new “freemium” services… Elsewhere, a Financial Times piece this week adds to the growing reports of Doug Morris seeking an early exit from his contract with Universal Music Group owner Vivendi, although it’s still unclear if he will get released in time for a presumed takeover for Sony Music CEO Rolf Schmidt-Holtz, whose contract is up at the end of March. More red rover continues between UMG and Sony, as Lucian Grainge taps former Sony A&R executive Larry Jackson as EVP of the IGA family of labels…. Meanwhile Guy Hands reportedly will get a last chance to hang on to EMI Music, as Citigroup asks the Terra Firma boss to make an offer to keep control of the music company, which is thought to be valued around £1.6 billion.
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Wednesday Bits & Pieces: Guy Hands to Appeal EMI Ruling, Doug Morris Seeks Early UMG Exit & more…
Hands Appeals EMI Ruling
Originally it was believed that Terra Firma would not appeal the ruling in Guy Hands‘ trial over EMI against lender Citigroup handed down last year, however it was announced by the private equity firm yesterday that a notice of appeal was indeed filed. Details as to what specific rulings are being appealed were not released… Reports of an imminent sale of EMI, as soon as four to six weeks from now, are being denied by both Citigroup and Terra Firma according to information shared with Music Week, representatives from both saying that formal action won’t be taken until March… Elseswhere, Doug Morris is reportedly in talks with Universal Music Group owner Vivendi SA to arrange an early exit from his contract as chairman. Presumably the expedited departure is being sought in order to join Sony Music Entertainment. Rumors persist that Morris is the likely candidate to replace outgoing Sony Music CEO Rolf Schmidt-Holtz, whose contract is up in March… And Mike Elizondo joins Warner Bros. Records as a staff producer and Senior VP of A&R, a position previously held by Rob Cavallo.
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Wednesday Bits & Pieces: Google’s War Chest is Key to Music Service, mSpot Goes Mobile & more…
App Approved
In case anyone had forgotten about Google’s plans to unleash a music service, a reminder comes in the form of new reports that the company is still in the process of negotiating with the labels for a launch next year, and their biggest, and most obvious bargaining chip, is lots of money, tens of millions in fact according to recent speculation. While it was originally thought that Google would first unveil a paid download type of service by the end of this year, similar to iTunes, ahead of moving toward the primary goal of a online music locker, indications now are that they’ll bypass a download store in favor of cloud-based streaming right out of the gate. Reasons for the delay in launch may include infighting over control of the music project, and failure to acquire an already built infrastructure in the form of Spotify or Rhapsody, rather than building something completely new. Matt Rosoff has the scuttlebutt at SAI… Speaking of music streaming, start up mSpot has gotten approval for their free iPhone app, which essentially provides the same desktop-to-mobile music synching feature that everyone is waiting for Apple or Google to launch, though as MediaMemo points out, the company currently has no licenses with the labels. A situation that seems to leave the company in a position to either be targeted for legal action or acquisition… The crux of the digital music dilemma is most often that technology innovators and content holders find themselves at an impasse, with the new distribution system, telecommunication companies, keeping their distance from the wrangle. Looking to the future, comments this week from Jean-Bernard Lévy, CEO of Vivendi, parent company of Universal Music Group among many others, could be seen as revealing. In discussing the company’s expanding umbrella and concentration on new businesses, Lévy said, ”The worlds of telecoms networks and content are merging,” – “And we are in the middle.”… Elsewhere, Yahoo has confirmed the already well documented layoffs, that total 600 staff members, or roughly 4% of its workforce… NBC is planning to launch their own American Idol rival, The Voice of America, which will start airing next spring, well ahead of the planned fall launch of Fox’s other Idolesque series, The X Factor… And MTV in partnership with The Echo Nest has launched a new algorithm-based music discovery site called MTV Music Meter, which puts focus on emerging artists alongside those already established, and is being seen as another step to maintaining the recently achieved online music dominance over Vevo…
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In Case You Missed It: Reading Recap
Changes Happening at Universal Music Group
More news out of MySpace this week with the departure of CEO Owen Van Natta after less than one year in the position; situation at the social networking company being described by some as a “hot mess”… Vivendi announced on Wednesday that Lucian Grainge would in fact become the next CEO of Universal Music Group in 2011. It took no time for the Brit to make comments to the New York Times and Wall Street Journal regarding the future of CD’s and his favor for anti-piracy laws. Naturally this caused a torrent of commentary, though nothing of a ‘07 Doug Morris Wired Magazine proportion… Veoh has announced it will be shutting down as a result of a “financially draining and distracting” legal bout with UMG, even though the video site was victorious in the precedent setting case; a closer look finds other possible factors involved with its bankruptcy… Elsewhere, Warner Music Group CEO Edgar Bronfman Jr made comments that rekindled talk of the company’s interest in EMI… Google is receiving a lot of flak for shutting down a handful of music blogs over DMCA complaints, though some are raising questions about where the blame should be put… And Universal Music Publishing CEO David Renzer explains why he thinks 2010 might be the most challenging time yet for publishers.
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